WATCH Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. (4041.T)
Basic Materials · Chemicals · JPX · Japan
45
Final Score
-138.0%
Margin of Safety
43
Quality Score
¥4,080
Current Price
¥218.7B
Market Cap
Key Metrics
Pe Ratio
12.13
Forward Pe
16.06
Pb Ratio
1.04
Ev Ebitda
10.59
Roe
9.2%
Gross Margin
29.9%
Operating Margin
10.9%
Net Margin
11.9%
Dividend Yield
399.0%
Debt To Equity
26.27
Current Ratio
2.34
Beta
0.07
📈 Trend Charts
Revenue Trend
EPS Trend
Net Income Trend
Free Cash Flow Trend
Intrinsic Value Estimates
Low
¥1,371
Base
¥1,714
High
¥2,057
⚠️ Value Trap Flags
- 🚩 {'flag': 'DEBT_OUTPACING_INCOME', 'severity': 'MED', 'evidence': 'Net debt growth (99.9%) outpacing operating income growth (-11.4%)'}
Pipeline Stage Details
Stage A — Hard Filters ✅
Pe Ratio
12.13
Eps Positive Years
4.00
Eps Lookback
4.00
Fcf Positive Years
3.00
Fcf Lookback
4.00
Debt To Equity
0.26
Current Ratio
2.34
Dilution Cagr
-0.01
Stage B — Quality Score: 43/100
Stage C — Cyclicality: MED
Normalized EPS
¥301.80
Stage F — Final Score Breakdown
| Component | Weighted Score |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3.0 |
| Earnings Quality | 10.6 |
| Balance Sheet | 18.0 |
| Stability | 8.2 |
| Moat Proxies | 5.0 |
Top Drivers
- Reasonable P/E of 12.1x — below long-run market average (~15-17x), suggesting the stock is not overpriced.
- Fortress balance sheet: D/E of 0.26x (conservative) and current ratio of 2.34x — ample liquidity and low financial risk. Graham emphasis on capital preservation.
Top Risks
- ⚠️ [MED] Leverage risk: Net debt growth (99.9%) outpacing operating income growth (-11.4%). Growing debt with stagnant income can lead to financial distress.
- Moderate cyclicality (Cyclical sector: Basic Materials) — earnings may fluctuate.
- Quality concern: Revenue declining: -4.2% CAGR
Financial History
| Year | Revenue | Gross Profit | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ¥172.8B | ¥49.3B | ¥16.9B | ¥16.7B | ¥299.39 |
| 2024 | ¥154.4B | ¥42.7B | ¥13.9B | ¥16.6B | ¥298.71 |
| 2025 | ¥155.2B | ¥44.9B | ¥16.1B | ¥15.0B | ¥272.56 |
| 2026 | ¥152.1B | ¥45.0B | ¥15.0B | ¥18.3B | ¥336.54 |
Cash Flow History
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2023 | ¥15.6B | ¥-12.6B | ¥3.0B |
| 2024 | ¥5.7B | ¥-11.4B | ¥-5.7B |
| 2025 | ¥22.6B | ¥-19.2B | ¥3.5B |
| 2026 | ¥21.6B | ¥-14.6B | ¥7.0B |