WATCH Tokyo Gas Co.,Ltd. (9531.T)
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas · JPX · Japan
45
Final Score
-26.2%
Margin of Safety
45
Quality Score
¥6,369
Current Price
¥2.1T
Market Cap
Key Metrics
Pe Ratio
9.73
Forward Pe
23.49
Pb Ratio
1.22
Ev Ebitda
6.99
Roe
9.6%
Gross Margin
17.6%
Operating Margin
8.2%
Net Margin
5.6%
Dividend Yield
194.0%
Debt To Equity
70.14
Current Ratio
1.60
Beta
-0.14
📈 Trend Charts
Revenue Trend
EPS Trend
Net Income Trend
Free Cash Flow Trend
Intrinsic Value Estimates
Low
¥4,036
Base
¥5,045
High
¥6,054
⚠️ Value Trap Flags
- 🚩 {'flag': 'DEBT_OUTPACING_INCOME', 'severity': 'MED', 'evidence': 'Net debt growth (29.5%) outpacing operating income growth (-53.1%)'}
Pipeline Stage Details
Stage A — Hard Filters ✅
Pe Ratio
9.73
Eps Positive Years
4.00
Eps Lookback
4.00
Fcf Positive Years
4.00
Fcf Lookback
4.00
Debt To Equity
0.70
Current Ratio
1.60
Dilution Cagr
-0.08
Stage B — Quality Score: 45/100
Stage C — Cyclicality: LOW
Normalized EPS
¥476.46
Stage F — Final Score Breakdown
| Component | Weighted Score |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3.0 |
| Earnings Quality | 11.2 |
| Balance Sheet | 13.0 |
| Stability | 12.0 |
| Moat Proxies | 6.1 |
Top Drivers
- Low P/E of 9.7x — classic Graham deep-value territory. The market is pricing in pessimism, yet the business continues to generate positive earnings.
- Conservative leverage: D/E ratio of 0.70x is well within Graham's maximum of 1.0x, reducing insolvency risk.
- Low cyclicality: earnings are relatively stable and predictable, making intrinsic value estimates more reliable.
Top Risks
- ⚠️ [MED] Leverage risk: Net debt growth (29.5%) outpacing operating income growth (-53.1%). Growing debt with stagnant income can lead to financial distress.
- Quality concern: Operating margin in structural decline
- Quality concern: Revenue declining: -4.8% CAGR
Financial History
| Year | Revenue | Gross Profit | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ¥N/A |
| 2023 | ¥3.3T | ¥693.2B | ¥421.5B | ¥280.9B | ¥646.99 |
| 2024 | ¥2.7T | ¥471.6B | ¥217.1B | ¥165.5B | ¥411.88 |
| 2025 | ¥2.6T | ¥406.2B | ¥133.1B | ¥74.2B | ¥192.22 |
| 2026 | ¥2.8T | ¥507.3B | ¥197.7B | ¥226.9B | ¥654.76 |
Cash Flow History
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2023 | ¥487.0B | ¥-184.9B | ¥302.1B |
| 2024 | ¥316.3B | ¥-214.1B | ¥102.2B |
| 2025 | ¥363.1B | ¥-306.1B | ¥57.1B |
| 2026 | ¥451.8B | ¥-295.6B | ¥156.2B |