WATCH CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs · NYQ · United States
56
Final Score
-8.8%
Margin of Safety
72
Quality Score
$135.62
Current Price
$20.5B
Market Cap
Key Metrics
Pe Ratio
10.06
Forward Pe
13.08
Pb Ratio
3.58
Ev Ebitda
6.19
Roe
29.9%
Gross Margin
42.5%
Operating Margin
49.3%
Net Margin
27.1%
Dividend Yield
185.0%
Debt To Equity
40.50
Current Ratio
4.86
Beta
0.40
📈 Trend Charts
Revenue Trend
EPS Trend
Net Income Trend
Free Cash Flow Trend
Intrinsic Value Estimates
Low
$99.70
Base
$124.62
High
$149.55
⚠️ Value Trap Flags
- 🚩 {'flag': 'DEBT_OUTPACING_INCOME', 'severity': 'MED', 'evidence': 'Net debt growth (92.1%) outpacing operating income growth (-57.4%)'}
Pipeline Stage Details
Stage A — Hard Filters ✅
Pe Ratio
10.06
Eps Positive Years
4.00
Eps Lookback
4.00
Fcf Positive Years
4.00
Fcf Lookback
4.00
Debt To Equity
0.41
Current Ratio
4.86
Dilution Cagr
-0.08
Stage B — Quality Score: 72/100
Stage C — Cyclicality: MED
Normalized EPS
$9.99
Stage F — Final Score Breakdown
| Component | Weighted Score |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 3.0 |
| Earnings Quality | 18.1 |
| Balance Sheet | 18.0 |
| Stability | 8.2 |
| Moat Proxies | 8.3 |
Top Drivers
- High quality business (score 72/100): above-average returns on capital and reliable earnings generation.
- Reasonable P/E of 10.1x — below long-run market average (~15-17x), suggesting the stock is not overpriced.
- High ROIC of 28.1% — the business earns well above its cost of capital, indicating a strong competitive advantage and efficient capital allocation (Buffett seeks ROIC > 12%).
- Fortress balance sheet: D/E of 0.41x (conservative) and current ratio of 4.86x — ample liquidity and low financial risk. Graham emphasis on capital preservation.
- Strong free cash flow generation — the company converts earnings into real cash effectively, supporting dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction.
Top Risks
- ⚠️ [MED] Leverage risk: Net debt growth (92.1%) outpacing operating income growth (-57.4%). Growing debt with stagnant income can lead to financial distress.
- Moderate cyclicality (Operating margin stddev: 9.2%; Cyclical sector: Basic Materials) — earnings may fluctuate.
- Quality concern: Operating margin in structural decline
- Quality concern: Revenue declining: -14.1% CAGR
Financial History
| Year | Revenue | Gross Profit | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $N/A |
| 2022 | $11.2B | $5.9B | $5.6B | $3.3B | $16.38 |
| 2023 | $6.6B | $2.5B | $2.3B | $1.5B | $7.87 |
| 2024 | $5.9B | $2.1B | $1.7B | $1.2B | $6.74 |
| 2025 | $7.1B | $2.7B | $2.4B | $1.5B | $8.97 |
Cash Flow History
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2022 | $3.9B | $-462.0M | $3.4B |
| 2023 | $2.8B | $-1.7B | $1.0B |
| 2024 | $2.3B | $-521.0M | $1.8B |
| 2025 | $2.8B | $-951.0M | $1.8B |