WATCH Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)
Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles · NYQ · United States
70
Final Score
48.4%
Margin of Safety
42
Quality Score
$25.83
Current Price
$2.7B
Market Cap
Key Metrics
Pe Ratio
13.38
Forward Pe
13.63
Pb Ratio
0.89
Ev Ebitda
8.01
Roe
7.1%
Gross Margin
28.9%
Operating Margin
3.1%
Net Margin
5.3%
Dividend Yield
282.0%
Debt To Equity
71.43
Current Ratio
1.91
Beta
1.28
📈 Trend Charts
Revenue Trend
EPS Trend
Net Income Trend
Free Cash Flow Trend
Intrinsic Value Estimates
Low
$40.02
Base
$50.03
High
$60.04
Pipeline Stage Details
Stage A — Hard Filters ✅
Pe Ratio
13.38
Eps Positive Years
4.00
Eps Lookback
4.00
Fcf Positive Years
4.00
Fcf Lookback
4.00
Debt To Equity
0.71
Current Ratio
1.91
Dilution Cagr
-0.09
Stage B — Quality Score: 42/100
Stage C — Cyclicality: LOW
Normalized EPS
$4.01
Stage F — Final Score Breakdown
| Component | Weighted Score |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 28.5 |
| Earnings Quality | 10.4 |
| Balance Sheet | 13.0 |
| Stability | 12.0 |
| Moat Proxies | 5.9 |
Top Drivers
- Deep discount: Harley-Davidson, Inc. trades at $25.83, estimated intrinsic value is $50.03 — a 48% margin of safety. Graham requires ≥30%; this exceeds even the 45% strong-buy threshold.
- Reasonable P/E of 13.4x — below long-run market average (~15-17x), suggesting the stock is not overpriced.
- Conservative leverage: D/E ratio of 0.71x is well within Graham's maximum of 1.0x, reducing insolvency risk.
- Low cyclicality: earnings are relatively stable and predictable, making intrinsic value estimates more reliable.
Top Risks
- Quality concern: Operating margin in structural decline
- Quality concern: Revenue declining: -8.1% CAGR
Financial History
| Year | Revenue | Gross Profit | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $N/A |
| 2022 | $5.8B | $2.1B | $909.3M | $741.4M | $4.96 |
| 2023 | $5.8B | $2.2B | $779.1M | $706.6M | $4.87 |
| 2024 | $5.2B | $1.8B | $416.6M | $455.4M | $3.44 |
| 2025 | $4.5B | $1.3B | $386.6M | $338.7M | $2.78 |
Cash Flow History
| Year | Operating CF | CapEx | Free Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $548.5M | $-151.7M | $396.8M |
| 2023 | $754.9M | $-207.4M | $547.5M |
| 2024 | $1.1B | $-196.6M | $867.3M |
| 2025 | $568.9M | $-153.7M | $415.2M |